Bears & Chargers Are Most Bet Teams to Miss NFL Playoffs

Aug 1, 2024; Canton, Ohio, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) warms up before the game against the Houston Texans at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsSports bettors can  wager on NFL teams to make or miss the 2024-25 NFL PlayoffsBetMGM released their betting splits data for who will make and miss the NFL PlayoffsDespite a lot of offseason hype, the Bears and Chargers have received the most bets to miss the playoffs

The Bears opened at -115 to make the playoffs and -105 to miss the playoffs this upcoming season at BetMGM. Chicago has since moved to -110 to both make and miss the playoffs, essentially making them a pick’em.

The Chargers’ odds have been on a similar trajectory. They were -115 to make the playoffs and +100 to miss the playoffs when the odds opened, and they now have -110 odds for both markets.

These two teams have received the largest percentage of bets to miss the playoffs which explains the odds movement. Keep reading to see more insights into the NFL Playoff betting splits as well as if there is value in betting on the Bears or Chargers to make/miss the postseason.

NFL Playoff Betting Splits

As of August 6, these are the teams receiving the most bets at BetMGM to miss the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs:

Los Angeles Chargers (75% of the bets, 42% of the betting handle)Chicago Bears (59% of the bets, 69% of the betting handle)

The difference between ticket percentage (the number of bets) and the betting handle (the percentage of total money that has been wagered so far) is worth noting for both the Chargers and the Bears. The Chargers are receiving a lot of bets at 75%, but just 42% of the money is on Jim Harbaugh and co. to miss the playoffs.

The Bears on the other hand are receiving the majority of the bets and the majority of the money to miss the postseason this year.

Why the Bears Will Make the NFL Playoffs

The Bears have received the most hype out of any NFL team this offseason, and why not? They won five of their last eight games in 2023, drafted Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick, and surrounded him with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. In that eight-game span to close out the year, Chicago’s defense only allowed one opponent over 20 points as well. Adding Montez Sweat during the season last year paid dividends for the entire unit, and they project to be a top defense in 2024.

Chicago is doing everything they can to support Caleb Williams. His receiving corps is made up of Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. They also added D’Andre Swift to the backfield. It seems like the Bears put themselves in a good position for 2024 and beyond.

So why are people betting on the Bears to miss the playoffs?

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Why the Bears Will Miss the Playoffs

The Bears are in one of, if not, the hardest divisions in football. The NFC North features the Lions who are fresh off an NFC Championship appearance and the Packers, who have been Chicago’s kryptonite. Even with Aaron Rodgers leaving, Jordan Love and Co. went 2-0 against the Bears last year. The Vikings have the longest odds to win the NFC North, but they still have plenty of talent across the board.

While Caleb Williams has all the talent in the world, he is still a rookie quarterback. It will take time for him to adjust to NFL defenses after facing Pac 12 units at USC.

Why the Chargers Will Make the NFL Playoffs

The Chargers last made the playoffs in 2022 when they blew a 27-point lead to the Jaguars. Last season, Los Angeles finished 5-12 despite a talented roster that included Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and Keenan Allen. They finished fourth in the AFC West. That was their worst record since 2019.

The 2024-25 Los Angeles Chargers are going to look a lot different than they have in years past. Brandon Staley is out and Jim Harbaugh and his run-first scheme are in. Ekeler is now in Washington and 6x Pro Bowler Keenan Allen is now in Chicago. Harbaugh went out and hired Greg Roman to be his offensive coordinator, and the organization selected Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

With all these changes, there is still a lot to be optimistic about in 2024 for the Chargers. They made a major improvement going from Brandon Staley to reigning National Champion head coach Jim Harbaugh. Staley went 15-16 in one-score games in his time as the Chargers head coach. Harbaugh has plenty of experience as a head coach, both in the NFL and college, so it should not take long for him to turn around a team that still has plenty of talent. LA revamped their offensive line, still have Justin Herbert under center, and have playmakers such as Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, and rookie Ladd McConkey.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers have plenty of talent with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the edge and Derwin James in the secondary.

another one thank u pic.twitter.com/lBGraKaTp0

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) August 4, 2024

Perhaps the most likely reason why the Chargers will make the playoffs this season is because according to our proprietary calculations, they have the second easiest strength of schedule.

Why the Chargers Will Miss the Playoffs

While Jim Harbaugh has plenty of coaching experience, it still might take time for all of these changes to gel. Herbert’s plantar fascia injury which will keep him sidelined for two weeks has delayed some of those changes. It is not easy to learn a new offensive system even if your star quarterback is healthy, but without Herbert getting reps, the Chargers offense has been struggling in camp.

While they have a favorable schedule, they still play in the same division as the back-to-back Super Bowl champions, which is never great when looking at a team’s postseason chances.

NFL Playoff Picks:

Bears to MISS the NFL Playoffs (-110)

Chargers to MAKE the NFL Playoffs (-110)

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