With less than a week left until the July 30 Major League Baseball trade deadline, these late July games carry plenty of importance as teams that are on the fence of being buyers or sellers come closer to their decisions each day.
From a player prop perspective, a lot of attention will be focused around three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw, who makes his season debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers today against their biggest rivals, the San Francisco Giants. However, we focus our attention on another pitcher who has finished in the top two of a Cy Young vote in prior years, and we back the Over on a red-hot player’s total bases prop.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Thursday, July 25.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dylan Cease to record a win (+100)
Over the last two weeks there has been no starting pitcher in baseball hotter than Padres righty Dylan Cease. Cease has thrown back-to-back scoreless starts while striking out seven times as many batters as he has allowed hits (21 to 3). OptaSTATS also had a mind-boggling stat about Cease, citing that his four starts of seven-plus innings while allowing one or fewer hits this season ties the record set by Hall of Famer Pete Alexander in 1915 for the most such starts by a pitcher in a season in the modern era.
Cease has been untouchable with whiff and strikeout rates that rank in the 92nd and 94th percentile, respectively. And when batters do make contact against him, it is usually weak contact, as he ranks in the fifth percentile in barrels.
We do not see any path to a Washington Nationals victory with Patrick Corbin on the mound, as he is the only pitcher in the rotation with a negative WAR rating (-0.3). Just five of Corbin’s 20 starts have been quality starts, and with the team being 2-10 in his last 12, backing Cease to earn the victory is a great way to get better value and work around San Diego’s steep -192 moneyline odds.
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
No Rays hitter has been more on fire over the last two weeks than Randy Arozarena, whose .990 OPS, 178 wRC+, and 53.8% hard-hit percentage lead the team by a wide margin in that span. Arozarena has six extra-base hits in the last six games, and he is the likeliest Rays hitter to cash this Over with one swing, especially since he has slashed .429/.429/.857 in 14 at-bats against Bassitt, with four of his six hits going for extra bases.
Bassitt has had a rough go of it in general against current Rays hitters, who have slashed .279/.344/.594 against him in 68 combined at-bats. While Bassitt’s 24.7% strikeout rate in those 73 plate appearances is respectable, his 8.4 K/9 rate this season is second-worst of all Blue Jays starters. Thus, another five-inning appearance from him, which he has produced in two of the last three starts, opens up the Blue Jays for another needed long outing from their relievers, who rank 29th out of 30 teams in bullpen ERA (4.83).
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
