College Football Preseason Predictions For 2018
August 23, 2018 – by David Hess
Below are our official 2018 college football preseason predictions, including projected standings and most likely conference champions.
After the standings tables, you’ll find some tips on how to interpret the numbers.
During the season, we update these win-loss and final standings predictions daily on our college football projected standings page.
FYI: If you’re in a football pool or betting games, check out our Football Pick’em Pool Picks , NFL Survivor Picks and College Football Betting Picks.
College Football Preseason Predictions Menu
Quick Links To 2018 Predictions By Conference:ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SECAll other conferences
About Our College Football Preseason Predictions:How do we come up with these predictions?Exactly what do these numbers mean?Why does our approach make sense?
Across all FBS conferences this year, the team we give the best chance to win its conference is Clemson to win the ACC with 41.3% odds.
Keep in mind that’s still less than a 50/50 chance, so it’s actually more likely that Clemson doesn’t win the ACC. But they have the best chance.
The most up-for-grabs conferences look like the Big Ten and the MAC. The teams with the highest odds to win those conferences, Wisconsin and Ohio, still only have about a 1-in-4 chance to do so.
ACC Football Preseason Predictions 2018
Most Likely Conference Champion: Clemson (41.3% odds)
| Atlantic | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Clemson | 6.6 | 1.4 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 98.8% | 41.3% | 24.3% |
| Florida St | 4.6 | 3.4 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 78.7% | 9.2% | 2.5% |
| NC State | 4.1 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 76.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Louisville | 3.8 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 66.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Boston Col | 3.7 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 72.3% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Wake Forest | 3.2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 58.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Syracuse | 2.9 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 48.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Coastal | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Miami (FL) | 5.7 | 2.3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 94.5% | 18.5% | 10.5% |
| VA Tech | 5.0 | 3.0 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 89.3% | 9.4% | 4.8% |
| Duke | 3.9 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 65.7% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| GA Tech | 3.8 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 64.6% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Pittsburgh | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 41.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| N Carolina | 3.3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 52.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Virginia | 2.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 30.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Big 12 Football Preseason Predictions 2018
Most Likely Conference Champion: Oklahoma (34.0% odds)
| Team | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Oklahoma | 6.6 | 2.4 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 94.6% | 34.0% | 13.2% |
| TX Christian | 5.5 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 81.8% | 13.6% | 3.0% |
| Texas | 5.5 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 81.8% | 14.7% | 3.7% |
| Oklahoma St | 5.1 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 82.7% | 10.7% | 2.6% |
| W Virginia | 5.0 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 76.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% |
| Kansas St | 4.4 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 69.7% | 5.8% | 1.0% |
| Iowa State | 4.3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 66.2% | 5.2% | 0.8% |
| Baylor | 3.7 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 58.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Texas Tech | 3.6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 51.8% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Kansas | 1.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 10.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Big Ten Football Preseason Predictions 2018
Most Likely Conference Champion: Wisconsin (27.4% odds)
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Ohio State | 6.8 | 2.2 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 96.4% | 19.2% | 11.6% |
| Penn State | 6.2 | 2.8 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 93.2% | 14.5% | 7.5% |
| Michigan St | 6.1 | 2.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 90.8% | 11.1% | 6.6% |
| Michigan | 5.9 | 3.1 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 89.0% | 11.1% | 3.9% |
| Indiana | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 48.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Maryland | 3.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 32.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rutgers | 2.4 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 29.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Wisconsin | 6.8 | 2.2 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 98.6% | 27.4% | 13.7% |
| Iowa | 5.3 | 3.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 82.9% | 7.4% | 3.0% |
| Northwestern | 4.7 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 67.4% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Minnesota | 3.8 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 59.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Purdue | 3.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 48.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Nebraska | 3.4 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 52.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Illinois | 1.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 8.1 | 19.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Pac-12 Football Preseason Predictions 2018
Most Likely Conference Champion: Washington (33.0% odds)
| North | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Washington | 7.1 | 1.9 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 96.9% | 33.0% | 13.3% |
| Stanford | 6.0 | 3.0 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 87.3% | 14.4% | 3.8% |
| Oregon | 5.4 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 90.7% | 10.9% | 4.6% |
| California | 4.3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 65.6% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Wash State | 3.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 56.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Oregon St | 1.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 9.1 | 8.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| South | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| USC | 6.1 | 2.9 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 84.2% | 15.8% | 3.7% |
| Arizona | 5.4 | 3.6 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 81.6% | 8.9% | 3.7% |
| Utah | 4.7 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 73.1% | 6.9% | 1.9% |
| Arizona St | 3.8 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 47.6% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| UCLA | 3.2 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 35.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Colorado | 2.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 34.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
SEC Football Preseason Predictions 2018
Most Likely Conference Champion: Alabama (34.6% odds)
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Georgia | 6.3 | 1.7 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 98.9% | 27.6% | 21.7% |
| S Carolina | 4.5 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 80.1% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Florida | 4.5 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 84.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Missouri | 4.0 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 73.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Kentucky | 3.1 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 56.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Vanderbilt | 2.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 27.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tennessee | 1.9 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 35.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Alabama | 6.5 | 1.5 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 98.9% | 34.6% | 26.8% |
| Auburn | 5.3 | 2.7 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 95.7% | 12.5% | 4.8% |
| Miss State | 4.9 | 3.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 91.1% | 8.3% | 4.2% |
| Texas A&M | 3.9 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 75.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| LSU | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 67.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Mississippi | 2.8 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Arkansas | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 56.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Preseason Football Predictions For Other FBS Conferences
AAC Football Preseason Predictions 2018
Most Likely Conference Champion: UCF (36.1% odds)
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Central FL | 6.3 | 1.7 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 95.8% | 36.1% | 12.2% |
| S Florida | 5.0 | 3.0 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 84.4% | 9.8% | 3.7% |
| Temple | 4.1 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 63.7% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Cincinnati | 3.4 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 46.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Connecticut | 2.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 16.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| E Carolina | 1.7 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 8.7 | 13.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Memphis | 5.6 | 2.4 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 94.7% | 18.3% | 7.2% |
| Houston | 5.0 | 3.0 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 83.3% | 10.0% | 2.9% |
| Navy | 4.9 | 3.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 86.2% | 13.7% | 1.9% |
| Tulane | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 48.6% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Tulsa | 3.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 37.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| S Methodist | 3.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 35.7% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
Conference USA Football Preseason Predictions 2018
Most Likely Conference Champion: Florida Atlantic (29.2% odds)
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Fla Atlantic | 6.2 | 1.8 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 92.0% | 29.2% | 2.5% |
| Marshall | 6.0 | 2.0 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 89.5% | 24.5% | 4.2% |
| Middle Tenn | 5.2 | 2.8 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 75.3% | 9.5% | 0.4% |
| Old Dominion | 3.4 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 45.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Florida Intl | 3.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 38.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| W Kentucky | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 31.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte | 2.4 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 19.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| North Texas | 5.3 | 2.7 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 82.3% | 12.3% | 2.7% |
| LA Tech | 5.2 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 77.6% | 10.4% | 0.3% |
| UAB | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 66.8% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| S Mississippi | 3.8 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 45.3% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| TX-San Ant | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 31.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Rice | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 25.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| TX El Paso | 1.6 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 9.1 | 11.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
MAC Football Preseason Predictions 2018
Most Likely Conference Champion: Ohio (27.4% odds)
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Ohio | 5.9 | 2.1 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 92.9% | 27.4% | 7.7% |
| Buffalo | 4.6 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 66.5% | 8.1% | 1.2% |
| Miami (OH) | 4.2 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 50.1% | 6.0% | 0.4% |
| Akron | 3.2 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 28.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Bowling Grn | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 29.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Kent State | 1.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 9.2 | 9.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| N Illinois | 5.8 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 76.1% | 25.5% | 1.4% |
| Toledo | 5.4 | 2.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 83.0% | 13.0% | 1.5% |
| W Michigan | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 67.0% | 9.8% | 0.6% |
| E Michigan | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 49.2% | 4.0% | 0.3% |
| Central Mich | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 42.6% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Ball State | 1.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 8.8 | 11.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Mountain West Football Preseason Predictions 2018
Most Likely Conference Champion: Boise State (36.4% odds)
| Mountain | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Boise State | 6.3 | 1.7 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 93.8% | 36.4% | 10.0% |
| Utah State | 5.4 | 2.6 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 86.4% | 9.2% | 1.3% |
| Air Force | 4.2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 59.7% | 5.3% | 0.6% |
| Wyoming | 4.1 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 61.7% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
| Colorado St | 3.7 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 45.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| New Mexico | 2.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 31.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| San Diego St | 5.8 | 2.2 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 93.3% | 21.7% | 3.3% |
| Fresno St | 5.4 | 2.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 85.6% | 15.7% | 2.8% |
| Nevada | 3.7 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 55.3% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| UNLV | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 51.6% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| San Jose St | 2.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 8.8 | 11.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hawaii | 1.4 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 10.1 | 9.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Sun Belt Football Preseason Predictions 2018
Most Likely Conference Champion: Arkansas State (36.6% odds)
| East | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| App State | 6.0 | 2.0 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 94.9% | 25.7% | 3.3% |
| Troy | 5.9 | 2.1 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 90.7% | 18.9% | 3.8% |
| GA Southern | 4.6 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 72.6% | 8.2% | 0.3% |
| Georgia State | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 21.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Coastal Car | 2.4 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 24.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| West | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| Arkansas St | 6.3 | 1.7 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 94.1% | 36.6% | 2.2% |
| LA Monroe | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 63.5% | 6.2% | 0.4% |
| S Alabama | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 27.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| LA Lafayette | 2.5 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 19.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Texas State | 2.0 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 20.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Independent I-A Football Preseason Predictions 2018
| Team | Conf W | Conf L | Overall W | Overall L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undefeated |
| BYU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 51.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Notre Dame | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 91.9% | 0.0% | 8.5% |
| U Mass | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 45.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liberty | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Army | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 89.5% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| N Mex State | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 37.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
How We Make Preseason Predictions
We have identified a set of team-level metrics that have demonstrated predictive value for projecting a team’s upcoming season results.
We identified these metrics by reviewing about a decade’s worth of college football data and applying significance tests to any interesting looking findings. Then, we built an algorithmic model that takes in these metrics as inputs, and computes a numerical preseason power rating for all 130 FBS teams. Our preseason ratings also incorporate recent information on team rosters for the 2018 season.
A team’s preseason power rating signifies how good we think it will be this coming season. Figuring out precisely how many games we expect that team to win, however, is a much more complicated problem.
To do that, we run thousands of game-by-game computer simulations of the 2018 college football season, using our predictive ratings to come up with implied win odds for each game.
Thanks to randomness, each season simulation plays out differently. Occasionally an unheralded team gets lucky, makes a run and wins its conference.
Over thousands of simulation runs, though, trends in the results begin to emerge. The 2018 preseason college football predictions in this post represent the averages of all the season simulation runs we conducted.
Exactly What Do These Numbers Mean?
It’s important to understand how our system generates the results it does, and precisely what they mean.
Here are the key details:
We end up projecting a lot of fractional wins. That obviously can’t happen in real life, but we don’t want to reduce precision in the numbers just to make them look prettier. For example, a projected 8.4 win team has better prospects than a projected 7.6 win team, but if we rounded, they’d look the same (with a projected 8 wins each).Even if we project a team with X wins, it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re highly confident they’ll end up with that EXACT number. Let’s say we have a team projected to win exactly 7.0 wins. In our season simulations, 7 wins may have been the most common outcome, but that team may have ended up with 6 or 8 wins nearly as often, and hit 5 or 9 wins some of the time. Our final projection, since it’s an average of all those numbers, ends up at 7 wins — but the odds of the team ending up with exactly 7 wins actually aren’t that high.Projections can change slightly day-to-day, even with no new game results. Because we re-simulate the season every day, randomness in simulation results may cause slight fluctuations in team projections from one day to the next, even if no new games have been played. So it’s wise not to read too much into tiny differences in the projections. A 0.1% difference in conference champion odds between two teams, for example, is not significant.
Why Is A Simulation-Driven Approach Valuable?
Despite some of the limitations, our data- and simulation-driven approach to making preseason predictions has proven to be a lot more accurate than the alternatives.
Human college football “experts” (some of them, at least) can be decent at projecting the future performance level of a team — especially one they’ve studied closely. But on the whole, they tend to have a very poor grasp of the potential impacts of probability and randomness over the course of a full college football season.
For example, even skilled “football people” tend to underestimate a great team’s odds of losing to a mediocre or bad team. While it’s true that a team like Washington is very unlikely to lose to a team like Oregon State, upsets do happen, and those probabilities keep adding up game after game. So you can’t discount them, especially when conference championships can be decided by just one win.
Running thousands of season simulations and analyzing the distribution of outcomes generated is a much more objective and precise way to do things.
When the dust settles at the end of the season, our preseason projections will almost certainly be way off for a few teams. As happens every year, some teams simply defy our expectations, while other projections will be derailed by factors out of our complete control, like injuries, suspensions and other unexpected events that occur as the season goes on.
Our goal, however, is the overall accuracy of the entire system — every prediction for every team. By that measure, our methodology has proven tough to beat.
Remember, if you’re in a football pool or planning on betting some games this football season, check out our Football Pick’em Pool Picks , NFL Survivor Picks and College Football Betting Picks.
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