Mets vs Yankees Predictions, Odds & Props to Target (July 23)
by Ethan Stone in MLB Baseball
Updated Jul 23, 2024 · 10:00 AM PDT
Jun 26, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Yankees second baseman Oswaldo Cabrera (95) throws past New York Mets designated hitter J.D. Martinez (28) attempting to complete a double play in the third inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY SportsThe Subway Series is back, with the New York Yankees and New York Mets facing off Tuesday night for the first in a 2-game sprint.The Mets lead the season series 2-0 after downing the Yankees twice at the end of June in a pair of high-scoring affairs.See the best picks, odds and a prediction for Tuesday’s game below.
The Subway Series is back, ladies and gentlemen.
And it means a lot this season. Both New York squads are above .500 and playing well as we near August. The Yankees boast one of the best records in MLB while the Mets have been on a hot streak, winning 7 of their last 10. On top of that, we’re in for a treat with some serious offensive firepower set to take to the plate tonight – Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are among the best in the league.
Tonight’s game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET on TBS from Yankee Stadium. Keep scrolling for a look at the latest odds, best player prop picks and a prediction of tonight’s game.
Subway Series Prediction (July 23)
NYM vs. NYY pick: Yankees ML (-155), O 9 runs (-115)
Tonight’s pitching matchup pits Luis Gil against Jose Quintana. Gil is having a superstar season while Quintana is putting together a respectable past month following a rough April and May.
This will be Gil’s 2nd stint against the Mets this season, and the last outing didn’t go too well for him. The Mets handed Gil the L with 4 hits across 4 innings, driving in 5 runs in a 12-2 blowout loss (see highlights in below section). I expect a better outing from Gil tonight in front of a “home” crowd.
I also expect another high scoring affair, which favors the Yankees as they get to bat last. Given the fact the home team has won both previous matchups, I’m gonna roll with the Yankees to win straight up.
Mets vs. Yankees Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | +1.5 (-155) | +130 | O 9 (-115) |
| New York Yankees | -1.5 (+130) | -155 | U 9 (-105) |
Odds above via Caesars Sportsbook. Check out our Caesars Promo Code for a look at one of the best welcome offers in the business.
Folks, this is going to be a good one. The Yankees are the more complete team on paper, but the Mets have been as hot as any team in MLB not named the Detroit Tigers. The Yankees are considered home favorites according to Caesars, sitting at -155 to win outright and +130 to win by 2 or more runs.
The Mets, meanwhile, are +130 to win outright and -155 to win or keep the game within a run at +1.5.
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The Over/Under for this matchup has been set at 9 per Caesars, with the over just slightly favored. This total seems high because it is – both previous Subway Series matchups this season eclipsed 14 combined runs.
Player Props to bet for Mets vs. Yankees (July 23)
| Player Props (Subway Series) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Luis Gil Under 6.5 Ks | -175 |
| Jose Quintana Over 4.5 Ks | +120 |
| Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits | -155 |
All odds above via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Gil was well under this total last time out against the Mets, and though I think he’ll have a better outing than last time asking for 7 Ks against one of the hotter teams in baseball is a tough ask. The Mets are seeing the ball well this season too, averaging under a K per inning this season.
This total seems low to me for a guy who has surpassed this number in 5 of his last 6 outings against teams that have seen the ball better than the Yankees this season (Houston and Washington). I don’t expect this to be the prettiest outing from Quintana, but 5 Ks is an achievable number.
Alvarez had an excellent outing against Gil last time around, drawing a walk and a 2-run home run. He did struggle against Miami, but he had recorded a hit in 8 straight games prior to that series.
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