Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.
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Week 3 NFL Composite Power Ratings 
- Despite starting 2-0, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ composite rating remains in the bottom half of the league. This makes sense given their two wins came with a ton of turnover luck in Week 1 and against one of the worst teams in Chicago in Week 2. Sources are similarly divided on how to rate Tampa Bay with the highest variance in the league in their rating.
- The Dallas Cowboys are the consensus best team in the NFL according to these ratings and hold the number one spot for five of the seven sources. Still, Dallas has the third shortest odds in the NFC to win the Super Bowl behind the 49ers and Eagles. This could be because of their schedule so far, but they’ve beaten down their inferior opponents and could provide some value in the futures market.
Week 3 Matchups
- The biggest difference between the rating-based spread and the actual game spread is in East Rutherford where the Jets are 3-point underdogs, but ratings suggest should be 1.4-point favorites. Basically, the rating values suggest the Jets and Patriots are essentially even teams (on a neutral field) and the Jets would get the 1.5 points for home-field advantage. With just a 37-point total on the game, this matchup should be pretty close so taking the Jets with the points appears to be the optimal bet.
- As we saw above, most sources are still bullish on the Browns despite their offensive output through two games and losing Nick Chubb for the season. The spread difference in Cleveland’s matchup against Tennessee shows the second-biggest deviation in the spread in a game that doesn’t feature a question mark at quarterback for one of the teams. If you’re similarly confident in Cleveland, then the -3 for them is showing some slight value here.
- Somehow, the market is in lockstep with the ratings-based spread for the Chiefs and Bears matchup. It feels like the Chiefs should still be favored by more given the offensive and defensive struggles Chicago has faced and the fact that their defensive coordinator just resigned.
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