The WNBA playoff race is shaping up with seven of the eight teams already clinching and the season ending is just under a month away. Now we wait to see the seeding battle. There is a solid slate of games with five different matchups to analyze. When betting, monitor any news and shop around for the best odds. This is the best way to get ahead of the books. The difference between -110 and -120 may not seem big, but it’s a big difference throughout an entire season. Either way, let’s get to my favorite bets of the day.
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Sunday’s Best WNBA Picks
Last Time: 2-0| Season: 11-9
Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty
The Aces hold the name recognition within the WNBA which keeps them continually inflated within betting markets but honestly, they’ve just been okay, especially recently. On the road they’ve been exactly average, ranking sixth in net rating since the All-Star break on the road, going 3-2. New York handled Las Vegas the last time these two teams matched up by double-digits, and that was in Vegas. Breanna Stewart continues to be outstanding and with only six games remaining, New York still has to put in the work to clinch the number one overall seed. If you put any other name on the jersey of this Vegas team, the spread would be more around six points based on the metrics of these two teams. The Liberty with their top-ranked defense should handle Las Vegas here, and cruise to a cover.
Pick: Liberty -4.0 (-110 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever
Quarterly moneylines and spread bets have been my go-to throughout the WNBA season and they have been as consistent as can be. With Indiana playing at home, I love it even more. The Fever have been the single-best team in the second quarter over their last 10 games. They have the best offensive rating, solid defense, the best winning percentage, and a 7-3 record overall in the second quarter. Atlanta on the other hand isn’t at that level, ranking as the single worst defensive team in the second quarter in that same time frame. Caitlin Clark and Co. have been the fastest-paced team in the league and fatigue begins setting in later in the second. Considering it’s only 1.5 points to cover with such an advantageous value here, I’d advise betting two or three units here. The last time these two teams played, the Dream posted one of the worst defensive efforts of the season. Now playing at Indiana, this bet is an easy lock-in for your Sunday day of betting.
Pick: Fever 2Q -1.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
Dallas Wings at Chicago Sky
With Angel Reese out for the season, everyone is running to the window to bet on Dallas. However, I see this as a market inefficiency where this line should be a lot closer to a pick-em. The Wings have the single biggest home and away splits in the W. Since the All-Star break, they have the best-rated offense when playing at home and that drops to last in the league on the road. In all, Dallas is 2-15 when playing away from home this year, including a previous loss to Chicago. Obviously, things are different now but there are serious data points that make the Sky quite an undervalued team here. The final playoff spot is still up for grabs, Chennedy Carter’s return seemed promising and Chicago gets a nice bump in numbers when playing at home. If you want, I’d support betting moneyline here for the Sky, or different alternate lines. This is a big game for Chicago as they attempt to officially put Dallas’ playoff hopes to bed.
Pick: Sky +4.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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